Gulf of Hormuz to be sealed off? Hold on, don't rush to fuel up; this looks more like a "market scare" show

Recently, the Middle East atmosphere is so tense it could squeeze oil out. Iran is speaking tough, the United States is both deploying troops and evacuating personnel, it seems like they want to stir the pot.
But the question is: will they really do it?
My judgment is straightforward:
There won't be a full-scale war, nor a long-term blockade.
The reason is simple—Gulf of Hormuz is too important.
If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, it’s not just “the opponent suffering,” but “the whole world will be headache,” including the party doing it.
A more likely scenario is:
✔ Small friction escalation
✔ Increased harassment of oil tankers
✔ Market sentiment exploding first
Oil prices will first be “scared higher,” then slowly return to reality.
This wave of market movement is not fundamentally about war logic, but—
Emotional trading + risk premium.
#美伊谈判陷入僵局