Looking at that economic model of chain games, the easiest thing to break is not the gameplay, but the pool being "produced" and dragged down: if inflation is too high, everyone claims and sells every day, and no matter how thick the pool is, it can't withstand it; conversely, to suppress inflation, you need new blood to take over, and if incentives stop, it cools off. Basically, it's treating cash flow like magic, and in the end, relying solely on sentiment to survive.

Recently, Layer 2 is still arguing about TPS, transaction fees, and subsidies, which is quite similar: subsidies are just short-term friction reduction, not a long-term moat. The model doesn't account for "selling pressure" and "exit speed," so no matter how beautiful the curve looks, it's just PPT.

What I fear most is not missing opportunities, but seeing obvious pitfalls and still insisting I'm doing research.