The stance is firm. Trump recently stated in an interview that the U.S. holds an absolute advantage in the US-Iran negotiations, demanding Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, indicating strong pressure. The second round of talks originally scheduled to be led by U.S. Vice President Vance in Islamabad was ultimately postponed after Iran explicitly refused to participate. Additionally, the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement set to expire on April 22 faces numerous uncertainties; the U.S. unilaterally extended the ceasefire, but core disagreements remain unresolved, and the Middle East confrontation remains tense. Driven by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, shipping restrictions, and supply concerns, international oil prices continue to rise. As of now, Brent crude oil prices have risen to $106.01 per barrel, steadily climbing within the day, with a nearly 59% increase compared to last year. The soaring oil prices further intensify global inflation pressures, increase volatility in major asset classes, and indirectly add complexity to risk assets.

In Bitcoin’s current rebound, short positions have been largely cleared, with short-term selling pressure briefly released, but the upward logic of the market shows clear shortcomings. According to CryptoQuant data, this price increase is not supported by spot market volume but is mainly driven by a nearly $1.19 billion short squeeze in the futures market. Over-reliance on derivatives to fuel the rally results in weaker stability and is prone to sentiment retreat and trend reversals.
Currently, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at the $80,000 mark, with upward momentum gradually exhausted, and the bulls and bears are approaching a balance.
Key resistance and support zones are clearly defined:
Major resistance: $78,500–$79,000, a heavily pressured zone where bulls struggle to break through sustainably;
Short-term reasonable pullback: if pressure causes a decline, the first support levels are $76,000–$76,500;
Critical defensive position: $75,000–$75,500, a break below this could damage the short-term upward structure and trigger an accelerated downtrend.
In the short-term trading rhythm, the latest developments in the US-Iran situation over the weekend will be important catalysts. However, the market has already fully priced in geopolitical conflict expectations, and the impact of news-driven unilateral shocks remains limited. Overall, the market is mainly experiencing technical pressure and consolidation. From a weekly chart perspective, the fourth wave of this rebound has entered its final stage, with volume continuing to shrink and upward momentum weakening, signaling a gradual accumulation of a top in the medium term. After the oscillation of market optimism amid repeated US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin surged to test #Gate13周年现场直击 .