I noticed an interesting prediction circulating in crypto circles right now. CK Zheng, the founder of the hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, has just shared a rather pessimistic analysis of Bitcoin for the coming months.

Basically, he suggests that we have entered a deep bear market phase and that the price could drop by about 30% by 2026. This is a perspective worth taking a moment to consider.

The context is revealing. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin surged to over $126,000 in October 2025. Since then, it has fallen to around $77,000 currently. This movement roughly follows the well-known four-year cycle around halvings. It’s almost mechanical at this point.

What makes the situation interesting is the psychology behind it all. Retail investors buy when euphoria is at its peak, then panic-sell when the market turns. This behavior amplifies each cycle and reinforces the bearish phases.

But it’s not just a matter of market sentiment. Institutional adoption remains frankly limited. Cryptocurrency ETFs and companies’ digital asset reserves account for only 10% of the overall market. In a bearish context like this, companies holding Bitcoin as a reserve might be forced to liquidate their positions to meet repayment pressures. And that’s exactly the kind of additional pressure that worsens the decline.

ZX Squared Capital’s analysis raises a legitimate question: are we really ready for a further 30% correction? Difficult to say for sure, but the signals Zheng points out deserve to be taken seriously.