每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0418-0424）

The information flow is too fast; in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trending topics.
The “Weekly Editor’s Picks” column extracts these valuable judgment content from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.

Macroeconomic Situation

Crossing the critical point: Price hikes are just the prelude; the oil market will face “physical supply disruptions”

“Time mismatch” is an underestimated variable by the market.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes short-term navigation, the delays caused by earlier transportation disruptions will continue to erode onshore inventories over the coming weeks.
This means supply issues will not be immediately alleviated with “navigation reopening,” but will lag and be reflected in inventories and spot markets.

Against this backdrop, refinery behavior becomes a key amplifier.
If the Strait remains closed until after April, the traditional oil pricing framework will fail.
The market will face an extreme situation close to “physical shortages”—in this state, prices are no longer effective adjustment tools, and the price ceiling loses its reference significance.

What can truly bring the market back to balance is not supply recovery, but policy-driven demand suppression similar to during the pandemic.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Consumer Crypto Global Census: User, Revenue, and Sector Distribution

The core issue with crypto users is a geographical problem (massive real users are overlooked by the West);
Tron is the most important consumer-level public chain;
On-chain e-commerce is not viable;
Revenue and user numbers often move inversely;
The perpetual DEX battle is over, with HYPE winning.

I used AI to analyze 221 contract tokens, finally finding the only viable path for “妖币” trading.

For妖币, predicting the start or “top-tick” is impossible; the only strategy is to short during rapid rises and retracements, and strictly execute exit at rebounds.
The only effective indicator: naked K-line.

Enter early, take short positions, and exit quickly.

How much cash do VC firms holding primary market investments still have?

Top-tier investors estimate:
Available funds for Series A and later rounds are about $6-7 billion,
Seed and earlier stage funds are about $1-2 billion.

Pufeng’s 2026 Hong Kong speech: Why I joined the crypto industry?

The future will definitely be “FICC+C,” meaning a major asset allocation combined with crypto assets.
Technology is bringing financial revolution; now is the moment when new technology creates new finance.
Crypto assets have matured to the point of being included in investment portfolios.

Also recommended: “Hong Kong Stock IPOs, a New Battlefield for Shenzhen Grinders.”

Market Prediction

You bet on news; the rule of the front car: Polymarket’s real understanding gap causes losses.

Polymarket has never been just a “guess the event” market; it’s more like translating real-world events into legal texts, then translating those texts into settlement results.

Understanding the rules is as important as research.
The front car’s advantage often comes from a deep understanding of the rules—knowing what this system recognizes and how rulings are made.

Who can realize earlier that there are gaps between “reality” and “rules,” and thus have a better chance to profit from misreads, disputes, and emotional biases?

Polymarket’s “2028 Presidential Election” traffic king is… LeBron James???

About 70% of trading volume is concentrated on candidates with less than 1% probability.
In these absurd event markets, traders or liquidity providers can be categorized as “lottery players, bots, and wool parties.”

In the “2028 Presidential Election” event on Polymarket, users trading James or Kardashian are neither crazy nor foolish;
They are either seeking stable annualized returns or aiming for better execution paths.
Their operations may seem absurd, but behind them is rational motivation.

Policy and Stablecoins

Will the CLARITY bill, with only a 50% probability this year, succeed before the midterm elections?

CeFi & DeFi

Aave, due to its own stupidity, hands over the throne of DeFi lending.

Aave is currently losing its biggest advantage in the lending sector—hundreds of billions in accumulated funds and the “safest DeFi” user perception—due to its extremely foolish crisis PR strategy, allowing community panic to ferment for days.

The true story behind WLFI’s satire

WLFI’s core controversy lies in its revenue distribution structure: “Zero investment, high commission, zero liability.”

WLFI’s risk map can be divided into two levels:

• Structural risk:
  75/25 profit sharing clause, 80% token concentration, overlapping identities among family and regulatory decision-makers, forming a systemic conflict of interest.
  This level of problem does not automatically resolve with market improvements or partial repayments.

• Operational risk:
  The Dolomite lending incident revealed a lack of basic risk management awareness at the financial decision level, and related-party transactions lack transparent disclosure.
  Combined with low token liquidity, such operations pose potential threats to market stability.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

Popular interaction collection | Tether Web3 wallet early registration; Nava AI waitlist application (April 22)

Ethereum and Scalability

Vitalik’s speech: Improving resistance to quantum computing, copying Ethereum’s L2 is meaningless | 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival

Weekly Hotspot Recap

Policy and Macro Markets

Trump announces extension of ceasefire, maintaining maritime blockade;

Iran: The Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran’s sovereignty and will not relinquish control;

SpaceX drops “IPO bombshell”: Space AI technology unverified, may not be commercialized;

US SEC Chair: Advancing the establishment of digital asset regulatory framework and proposing “A-C-T” strategy;

Singapore to optimize crypto capital regulation: Public chain assets may no longer be classified as high risk across the board;

Opinions and Voices

Hong Kong officials respond to “Middle East funds flooding in”: mutual exchanges, tokenized funds have landed on Middle Eastern wealth management platforms;

Dragonfly partner: DeFi evolves through failure, system possesses resilience and self-healing ability;

Sun Yuchen sues World Liberty Financial;

Elon Musk agrees to make ASTEROID SpaceX’s mascot (related meme and background story);

Institutions, Major Companies, and Leading Projects

Polymarket announces upcoming launch of perpetual contracts (interpretation);

Security

Kelp DAO’s rsETH bridge contract based on LayerZero was attacked, losing nearly $300 million (review, Aave, L0, Kelp three-party game),
Aave founder Stani announced a personal donation of 5,000 ETH to address current issues;

RAVE collapse (full review);

Iran fires at oil tankers scammed by crypto fraud;

A user profits $34k by interfering with Polymarket’s temperature prediction market using a hairdryer…

附《每周编辑精选》系列传送门。下期再会~