I noticed an interesting analysis from Bitwise about how Bitcoin’s holding period affects the risk of losses. It turns out that if you hold БТЦ for three years or longer, the probability of a loss is practically zero—just 0.7%. And if you hold it for five years, the risk drops to 0.2%, and over a ten-year horizon, a loss is impossible.

But here’s what’s interesting—short-term traders are in a completely different situation. According to Bitwise, daily traders risk losing with a 47% probability, weekly traders with a 44.7% probability, and even monthly positions have a 43% risk. Even holding for a year doesn’t help—there’s still a 24% chance of a loss.

Bitcoin’s current price is about 77.6 thousand, and Bitwise notes that investors who held БТЦ for 3–5 years bought it at an average of 34.78 thousand. That means they are currently up by roughly 90% in unrealized profit. It turns out that a long-term approach to Bitcoin really works, while rushing is risky.