#加密市场行情震荡 Currently, the global macroeconomic core variables focus on the geopolitical game between the US and Iran, with negotiations between both sides stuck in a deadlock, continuously bringing uncertainty and disturbance to the capital markets. The US stance is firm; in a recent interview, Trump stated that the US holds an absolute advantage in the US-Iran negotiations, demanding Iran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, with strong pressure implying a heavy-handed approach. The second round of negotiations originally planned to be led by US Vice President Vance in Islamabad was ultimately postponed after Iran explicitly refused to participate. Additionally, the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement set to expire on April 22 faces numerous uncertainties; the US unilaterally extended the ceasefire period, but core disagreements remain unresolved, and the Middle East confrontation remains tense. Driven by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, shipping restrictions, and supply concerns, international oil prices continue to rise. As of now, Brent crude oil prices have risen to $106.01 per barrel, steadily climbing within the day, with a year-over-year increase of nearly 59%. The soaring oil prices further intensify global inflation pressures, increase volatility in major asset classes, and indirectly create complex bidirectional impacts on risk assets.

In Bitcoin’s current rebound, short positions have been largely cleared, with short-term selling pressure briefly released, but the upward logic of the market shows obvious shortcomings. According to CryptoQuant data, this price increase is not supported by an influx of spot buying; the core driving force comes from a concentrated short squeeze in the futures market totaling nearly $1.19 billion. Over-reliance on derivatives to drive the rally results in weaker stability, making it prone to sentiment retreat and trend reversals.

Currently, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at the $80,000 mark, with upward momentum gradually exhausted, and the bulls and bears approaching equilibrium. The key resistance and support zones are clearly defined:
- Major resistance: $78,500–$79,000, a heavily pressured zone where bulls struggle to break through sustainably;
- Short-term reasonable pullback: if pressure causes a decline, the first support levels are $76,000–$76,500;
- Critical defensive position: $75,000–$75,500, a breach below which the short-term upward structure would be broken, potentially triggering an accelerated downward trend.

In the short-term trading rhythm, the latest developments over the weekend regarding the US-Iran situation will be important catalysts. However, the market has already fully priced in geopolitical conflict expectations, and the impact of news-driven unilateral shocks remains limited; overall, the market continues to primarily experience technical pressure, decline, and consolidation. From a weekly chart perspective, the current fourth wave of the rebound has entered its final stage, with volume continuing to shrink and upward momentum weakening, signaling a gradual accumulation of a top in the medium term. After repeated US-Iran tensions and the market’s optimistic expectations being fully released, the probability of Bitcoin testing the $80,000 resistance and then reversing is relatively high. Coupled with multiple negative signals resonating: $8.47 billion worth of options expiring, the prior $1.19 billion short positions being largely cleared, spot market support weakening, and the futures-spot premium gradually converging, all indicate that this phase of the rally is nearing its end. Without continuous influxes of spot funds or volume support above $80,000, the weekly stage of the rebound is likely to end, and the market will revert to a correction cycle, with the core oscillation zone locked between $75,000 and $76,000. In the medium term, the market will shift from a bullish dominance to a more oscillating and slightly weaker trading pattern.