This Week's Highlights: Trump Influences Market + US-Iran Tensions Escalate, 15-Minute 'Master Short' Triggers Insider Investigation

On April 25, macroeconomic factors and geopolitics became the core drivers of the market this week. The ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to affect oil prices and global risk assets, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved and negotiations shifting towards a ‘complete ceasefire,’ driving safe-haven sentiment that boosts the volatility of the dollar and oil prices. In the market, Trump’s influence on the situation has significantly strengthened. Data shows that nearly all of the largest daily fluctuations in US stocks during his second term were policy-driven, with traders speculating around his ‘frequent policy shifts,’ leading to a clear ‘Trumpification’ of market pricing logic. Notably, the oil market has seen multiple instances of precise ‘front-running’ trades: hundreds of millions in short positions appeared and successfully bet on a crash within 15 minutes before a ceasefire or policy shift, accumulating to about $2.6 billion over the month, triggering an insider trading investigation by US regulators. In monetary policy, the US Department of Justice suddenly withdrew its investigation into Powell, clearing the way for Waller to take over as Fed Chair; he emphasized in hearings that he would not become a ‘rate-cutting tool’ but advocated for institutional reforms. Asset performance has shown significant divergence: oil prices have strengthened unilaterally due to supply shocks, while gold and silver have faced downward pressure; US stocks have reached new highs amid volatility, with structural divergence intensifying; the yen’s depreciation is nearing intervention territory. Other important developments include: Tesla raising its capital expenditure to $25 billion to bet on AI and robotics; DeepSeek releasing its V4 model amid reports that Tencent and Alibaba plan to invest at a valuation exceeding $20 billion; and OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 to accelerate commercialization. Overall, with the combination of geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainty, the market has entered a state of high volatility, with trading logic shifting from ‘macro data-driven’ to ‘event and power-driven.’