I just looked at the latest prediction market data—and the picture is crystal clear. Traders are almost unanimous: the Fed will not change rates in April. On Polymarket, the probability that things stay as they are has reached 96%, and on Kalshi—about 94%. This is no coincidence.

Trump continues to pressure Powell, calling for rate cuts. But traders clearly do not believe that will work. After the March FOMC meeting, when the ФРС confirmed a data-dependent approach, market participants became more confident that patience will outweigh political pressure. A month ago, the probability of holding rates was 78.9%, a week ago it was 95.7%, and now it’s already 92.8%, according to CME Fedwatch. The trend is obvious.

Interestingly, more than $13 million was tied up on Polymarket, but even these large volumes do not change traders’ minds. Positions for aggressive easing attract capital more as hedging rather than as a real bet on a policy shift. In short, the market expects a calm April.

As for the full picture for 2026, traders are preparing for the long game without any sharp moves. The most likely scenario is zero rate cuts throughout the year, with a (31% probability), followed by options with one or two cuts. Aggressive easing cycles are practically not being considered. As long as Powell remains in office until May, the market does not expect any surprising turns. The signal from traders is clear: after the pause in March, another pause is expected in April.