Recently, I came across a viewpoint released by Grayscale Research. They believe that Bitcoin will very likely break new highs in 2026, and the assessment is actually quite interesting.

To be clear, there has long been a saying in the market about Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle.” However, Grayscale’s analysis suggests that this round is quite different from before. In previous cycles, the surge was typically driven by retail investors, often creating a parabolic run-up that made it easier for a bubble to form. But now the driving force is completely different—large amounts of institutional capital are flowing in, which changes the nature of the entire market.

Grayscale also pointed to two other key factors: potential interest rate cuts and regulatory progress in the United States’ crypto rules. None of these can be driven by short-term speculation; they are long-term, structural supports. In other words, this time the new high isn’t manufactured by hype—it’s supported by fundamentals.

I noticed that Grayscale’s view challenges many people’s obsession with traditional cycles. If their assessment holds true, it means the market has entered a new stage of development, with the era of institutional leadership replacing the era of retail leadership. This could be a turning point for the entire ecosystem.

Bitcoin has already set a new high, and Grayscale’s prediction seems increasingly convincing. If you’re interested, you can follow the movement of BTC on Gate.