Taking on debt to engage in uncontrollable output activities is a very dangerous model.

Whether for companies or individuals, especially in the current era, it should be avoided, like walking on thin ice.
The conclusion above was drawn from recent reflections on the failed investment in Vanke I made earlier.
The core reason for this failure was that I didn't fully understand the business model of the real estate industry, relying solely on the inertia of past cycles and the logic of industry survival of the fittest to place heavy bets.
I started buying gradually in 2019, with the logic that during the real estate downturn, Vanke’s position as a leading company would have strong cyclical resilience, and during the industry cleanup phase, it could continue to increase market share by leveraging its brand momentum, eating into the shares of other small and medium-sized real estate developers. (Looking back now, the industry logic I judged then might still have been valid, but I didn't anticipate the industry's complete exit.)
The essence of the real estate industry is a process where leverage fluctuations and asset price movements intertwine, involving extremely uncertain complexity and long-term dynamics.
Moreover, there is an additional huge, unpredictable variable — housing prices.
This essentially means using borrowed funds to engage in a business with uncertain output (the company's actual profit is linked to land acquisition costs and opening house prices).
For personal and family financial considerations:
Avoid borrowing if possible; if borrowing is absolutely necessary, ensure that the output from the debt is non-volatile or that its fluctuations won't impact your financial stability.
Especially in today’s turbulent times, we can no longer rely on the investment principles of the past twenty years of economic growth.
Let’s encourage each other.