Summary: UBS says reopening the Strait won’t prevent structurally high oil prices, as energy security concerns and the need to rebuild inventories keep prices around the mid-$80s, above the prewar mid-$60s.Abstract: This note argues that even with the Strait reopening, persistent energy-security concerns and the necessity to rebuild strategic inventories will prevent oil prices from falling to prewar levels. It estimates stabilization around the mid-$80 per barrel range, indicating structural factors that keep prices elevated and slow a return to the mid-$60s seen before the conflict.

AirdropBlackHole

2026-04-25 00:25:17

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On April 22, UBS pointed out that even if the Strait reopens, concerns over energy security and the need for countries to rebuild inventories will make it difficult to avoid structurally high oil prices. Compared to the mid-$60 per barrel oil price level before the outbreak of war, even under the most ideal circumstances, future oil prices can only stabilize in the mid-$80 per barrel range.

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UBS Warns: $80 per Barrel Oil Price May Become the New Normal

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