Just came across a very interesting macro timing framework, and I want to share it.

Most retail investors just buy in, hold, and pray they don’t drop 50%. But institutional investors operate with a completely different logic—they prioritize capital preservation, which is the key to surviving long-term.

I’ve been following this Fabian timing model, and honestly, it’s incredibly simple. It involves watching three indices: the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Dow Jones Utilities. The only rules are: when all three are above their 42-week moving averages, go long; when two or more fall below their moving averages, exit to cash. It’s that straightforward, but the results are astonishing.

What does the data say? From 1993 to now, the S&P 500 experienced a severe drawdown of -56.78%. But with this Alpha timing strategy, the maximum drawdown was limited to -28.05%, nearly halving the loss. Over 33 years, only 36 trades were made, with a 50% win rate, but a profit factor of 5.720. What’s the key? The average drawdown is only -8.61%, and the Ulcer Index is just 11.75, meaning you can really sleep well at night instead of being anxious every day.

What about the current environment? All three major indices are firmly above their 42-week trendlines, signaling structural support and a clear risk appetite. As long as this structure holds, mechanical trend-following is your friend. The moving averages now act as a trampoline, not a ceiling.

The problem is many people stubbornly hold their positions, only reacting when the macro environment shifts. You need to understand that every economic cycle starts by climbing out of a -50% pit; it’s impossible to build intergenerational wealth this way. Master risk management, follow the signals—that’s the way to survive long-term.

Recently, I’ve been using this framework to assess market rhythm, and it feels much more reliable than just looking at technicals. If you’re interested, you can study this timing logic yourself—it’s very helpful for understanding macro turning points.