Recently, I've seen people again interpret a rise in stablecoin supply as "money is about to enter the market," and then casually link it to ETF subscriptions. Honestly, the correlation looks quite logical, but that doesn't mean causation. An increase in stablecoins could be due to market makers stocking up, on-chain arbitrage funds waiting for opportunities, or it could simply be funds moved from other chains or exchanges, or even short-term risk control holding funds in stablecoins first.

The ETF side is more like an over-the-counter faucet, but the flow rate often doesn't sync with on-chain sentiment: sometimes it first reflects in overall market liquidity, other times it quietly thickens the spot order book. Recently, new L1/L2s have started offering incentives to boost TVL, and I understand the old users' complaints about "mining, selling," but I also know that high TVL on paper doesn't necessarily mean genuine users are staying. Anyway, I only focus on two things now: whether stablecoin inflows are sustained, and which address types the inflows are going to, then decide how to adjust my positions—don't get misled by a correlation chart.