I was analyzing the Bitcoin halving data and found it quite interesting where we are now in the cycle. We've already passed 50% of the way to the next event, which is expected to happen around April 2028. Less than two years remaining, which means the market is probably already starting to price this in.



For those who don't follow closely, we are in epoch 5, which started in April 2024. During this period, each mined block generates 3.125 BTC in rewards. With each Bitcoin halving, this reward is cut in half, and that's what keeps inflation under control. Currently, issuance is below 1% per year, which is quite low.

What I find most fascinating is the progress of scarcity. 20 million bitcoins have already been mined, and that last million will take more than a century to be released. The maximum supply of 21 million is fixed, and each halving cycle makes issuance even slower. This is pure architecture.

But then there's something that catches attention in the price numbers. BTC has risen about 15% since the 2024 halving, going from around 64,000 to near 77,500 now. It hit a high of 126,000 in October 2025, but then dropped quite a bit. Comparing with previous cycles in the same post-halving period, performance is much weaker.

This makes a lot of sense when you think about how big Bitcoin has become. The market capitalization now requires much more capital to generate the same percentage gains as before. Volatility is decreasing with each cycle, and price movements are much more gradual. Bitcoin is maturing, absorbing more institutional adoption.

With approximately 105,000 blocks still to go in this period, the network continues its predictable path. If you're closely following this, it's worth keeping an eye on how the market will react as we approach 2028. Personally, I've been monitoring the movements here on Gate, and it's interesting to see how different assets react to these Bitcoin halving milestones.
BTC-0.88%
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