I noticed an interesting point in the energy resources market — for the first time in four years, WTI has surpassed Brent in price. This happened back on April 2nd, but the consequences of this shift are worth analyzing. Since February, when the conflict between the US and Iran intensified, global energy logistics have been undergoing a serious restructuring. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has changed the entire game.

It long seemed that Brent maintained a premium as a symbol of global maritime flows. But when supplies from the Persian Gulf, Oman, and the UAE became risky, the situation reversed. Insurance premiums for tankers skyrocketed, and some shipments were completely halted. Meanwhile, WTI flows through pipelines directly to Gulf Coast refineries — no maritime risk, no delays. As a result, Brent crude now carries a "risk premium," while WTI receives a premium for reliability.

Germini Energy founder explained this well: the market now pays not for oil that "represents the global market," but for oil that can actually be obtained. In the spot market, this looks extreme — May is trading at about $77 per barrel, while the December contract is $25 cheaper. Investors are buying spot to cover current gaps, while betting that in a few months the conflict may weaken.

The picture on the physical market is even more dramatic: spot Brent has already broken the $140 per barrel mark. An analyst from Stratas Advisors warned that with the US announcement of a blockade of Iranian ports, the price could soar to $160–190. If this lasts long-term, demand destruction will begin — consumers will simply reduce consumption, which could trigger a global recession. It seems this is the only lever that will force both sides back to negotiations.