I noticed an interesting pattern that repeats from cycle to cycle. When Bitcoin breaks below the macro-triangle, it almost never signals a quick recovery. On the contrary, historically, such breakouts precede serious correction phases rather than rebounds. Large consolidation structures are a sign that the market is preparing for a decisive move, and usually, that move is downward.

Currently, the situation resembles 2014. Back then, Bitcoin consolidated below the base of the macro-triangle for quite a long time. If history repeats itself, the current consolidation may not be the end of the decline but an intermediate phase. The fluctuation ceiling could stay around $82,500, and there might be another macro-downward move before the final bottom.

On higher timeframes, the technical picture remains frankly bearish. The price is trading below exponential moving averages, confirming the overall downward trend. The RSI index is in the overbought zone, and the MACD shows a shift in momentum to the bearish side. A "head and shoulders" pattern is forming on the chart, and liquidity is concentrated below current levels.

The recent rise was mainly driven by news rather than organic price action. Historically, such impulsive moves are almost always corrected. Additionally, on lower timeframes, a change in market structure and a break below recent lows have already occurred. All these factors together indicate that the macro scenario remains bearish. The current Bitcoin price of around $77,720 is a rebound, not the start of a new trend. The risk level for long positions is higher than ever. If the macro-structure continues to follow the historical scenario, the bottom may still be ahead.