Recently, I see everyone interpreting a surge in stablecoin supply as "money entering the market," and with ETF data stacking up, the sentiment starts automatically imagining a causal chain… To be clear, correlation does not equal causation. Sometimes, stablecoins are just moving from one pocket to another, and the market might also be watching from the sidelines—it's not as dramatic as it seems.

If I had also jumped in based on the simplified logic of "supply = buying pressure" back then, I would probably have doubted myself during the pullback. Now, I care more about whether the newly issued stablecoins are truly flowing into trading demand or just being attracted by various yield strategies.

The recent heated debate over staking and shared security, with yield stacking being called "layering," is not surprising. Once funds are stuck with high APR stories, even if the supply looks impressive on the surface, it may not immediately translate into actual spot market momentum. Anyway, I’ll put the words "causality" aside for now—don’t let yourself get scared by your own assumptions.