I just noticed data from Santiment, it seems we've just gone through Bitcoin's FUD peak. About a year ago, after BTC dropped 16% from the beginning of 2025, this company observed that the amount of negative comments on social media hit a peak—that is, retail investor pessimism also reached its highest level since November of the previous year.

The interesting part is that historically, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) reach such a peak, it often signals the opposite—potential for the market to recover. The simple reason: when everyone is pessimistic, few are selling, selling pressure decreases, and prices naturally have the chance to bounce back. Santiment expects that the short-term recovery potential is quite high based on this model.

Looking back at history, this pattern has been correct several times—June 2022 after the LUNA/3AC incident, then BTC increased 24% from the bottom; January 2023 as well, recovering up to 40%. Even in November 2024, after the ETF-related volatility, FUD was high but then recovered 18%.

However, it’s important to remember that this is just a sentiment signal, not a certainty. The potential for recovery also depends on on-chain data, macroeconomic conditions, and liquidity factors. Currently, market sentiment is quite neutral (50%), so the potential for other factors to trigger movement exists. But relying solely on sentiment without combining other indicators still leaves the full picture incomplete.