You know what's funny? Most people think that the market bottom comes when everyone still believes. In reality, it's the opposite. When hope completely evaporates, that's when something interesting begins. The bottom is not formed during panic, but when the panic subsides, people give up, and conviction simply dissolves into the air.

What does bitcoin look like right now? On the surface — weak. Charts are sad, red tickers, everything looks like an ordinary bottom. But here’s the point — beneath this visible weakness, something is already shifting. Data is stopping to fall as it used to. It might be nothing, or it might be the beginning.

In such moments of the bitcoin cycle, it appears especially treacherous. Visually, everything looks bad, but psychologically, something is changing. When most people leave, only those who look at probabilities remain, not emotions.

It’s the probabilities that interest me now. Not the price, not the charts — probabilities. At this stage, that’s the only thing worth paying attention to. How does bitcoin look in the context of probabilities? It’s a completely different story from what most see.

Data hints that the bottom is already near or even behind us. The only question is whether anyone will notice it while bitcoin still looks so bleak.