Iranian Foreign Minister Kalibaf is making a routine visit to Pakistan. Whether it’s Trump or the US media, they’re all reporting that during the visit there will be meetings and negotiations with the United States. They’re visiting Pakistan—not coming to negotiate with you. And after Kalibaf’s previous remarks, Trump used a tweet about jewelry to steer things, which led Trump to call out orders on the spot—successfully. There’s a precedent: global misunderstanding followed, US stocks surged, and Trump was severely criticized by Iranians. He has already firmly picked a side; he won’t proactively talk to you.

Personally, I don’t think he’ll negotiate with the US either, because he isn’t going there to negotiate—he’s going to visit Pakistan.

There’s another point: the United States is demanding that Tether freeze 330 million USDT related to Iran. Here are two things worth mentioning. First, Iran is the fifth-largest mining country. They mine Bitcoin and convert it into USDT to use like dollars. Second, Tether is centralized, and it can freeze whatever USDT it thinks it can freeze at any time. If it turns into a accomplice to political persecution, that wouldn’t be good for the entire crypto community. I’ve written a dedicated article about Tether before, which you can look up.

Iran has unveiled an even harsher move. Trump, you like to enjoy drawing K-lines every day, right? Although everyone knows you’re panicking, you’re still hardlining. Fine—then we’ll publish the distribution map of the fiber-optic cables through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as you dare to move and cut the cables, the SWIFT global settlement system will be directly paralyzed. With a daily trading volume of 5 trillion every day, what are you going to use to respond? It won’t affect the RMB much, because basically the system isn’t used—less than 5%. Cross-border payments will stop entirely. Just look and see whether Trump is afraid or not—whether he’s going to be a coward or not. Even if you talk tough—if you’re this “awesome,” you don’t even need to negotiate. You’ll win big anyway—just go ahead and tweet it!

As long as you dare, Iran doesn’t believe that you can cut the cables without showing you’re going to be afraid. You can still keep drawing K-lines rising—that is a plain, real fact: cross-border payments and trade settlement can’t happen. No matter how you tweet, you can’t hide the facts. I’d actually like to see what happens when the US makes a move and Iran cuts the cables: Trump talks big and tries to dump—yet instead it won’t be able to fall, and it drops.

Today, each share is up quite well—the “big pancake” isn’t following anymore. It’s obvious that the “big pancake” is dumping at a high level. If the “big pancake” doesn’t work hard to break through to above 80,000, then a sideways-with-a-drop-later pattern is really going to appear. Going short should be the relatively correct choice.
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