I just reviewed Raoul Pal's analysis of the crypto markets, and there's something really worth paying attention to. While many are frustrated thinking everything is over, he sees a quite different outlook based on solid macroeconomic data.

The interesting thing is how global liquidity is highly correlated with BTC. We're talking about a 90% correlation since 2012, and with the NDX index, it reaches 97%. That’s no coincidence. Liquidity grows approximately 10% annually and remains accelerated, with no signs of slowing down. The GMI Financial Conditions index is already easing and has led global liquidity by about six months, so it basically tells us that money is flowing into the system.

What happened during the shutdown was that U.S. liquidity contracted in a bearish phase, but here’s the important part: this indicator leads cryptocurrencies by about three months. Three months ago, it hit a low, and since then, it’s been accelerating its recovery. The business cycle is in an accelerated trend, the eSLR is rising (banks are increasing credit), and with fiscal reimbursements entering bank balances, the propensity to create more credit will grow.

Not to mention that the U.S. will continue lowering interest rates, which increases disposable income. The CLARITY law will probably be approved soon, bringing in massive institutional capital. Banks and asset managers have been wanting to enter crypto for a while, and this will facilitate that. Stablecoins grew 50% in issuance last year and remain accelerated, with trading volume already in the tens of trillions of dollars.

Government support for crypto is at all-time highs. Regulators will implement measures gradually but will accelerate the market’s development. Here’s the key point: according to most indicators, the market is panicked and in the most oversold phase in history. The weekly DeMark indicator will provide very solid support in two weeks, and the daily is also in superposition. Any weakness from here completes both indicators, pointing to a possible total reversal.

Of course, there’s a risk: that oil prices stay high for too long. But the next two weeks are critical. With all this correlated data, Pal believes the results will be positive. A new bullish move is expected. BTC is trading around 77.70K, but according to macro analysis, this could just be the beginning.