I just noticed that Bloomberg energy analyst Javier Blas shared an interesting perspective on the impact of the Iran conflict on the oil market. He said that although Iran's attacks will definitely push up oil prices, the situation is not as serious as the market thinks.

Most importantly, the market's current main concerns are actually two extreme scenarios: one is both sides starting to target energy infrastructure, and the other is the closure of oil tanker shipping routes. But neither of these has happened yet. While some are discussing the possibility that Iran might destroy Middle Eastern energy industries, attack oil fields and export facilities, Tehran has not yet used oil as a weapon. Israel and the U.S. have also not taken action against Iran's oil infrastructure.

In terms of prices, even the most aggressive traders are only talking about oil prices possibly rising to $100 per barrel, which is much lower than the historic high of $147.5 in 2008 and the $139 after the Ukraine conflict in 2022. To put it another way, this Middle Eastern crisis is unlikely to trigger a major reshuffle in oil supply.

Interestingly, although the spot market has been relatively weak, the financial oil market has been bullish, with traders betting on rising oil prices and buying activity accelerating. The 12-day conflict last year scared many people at the time, triggering a buying spree and causing oil prices to surge. This time, it's different. Bullish positions are already at their highest levels in the past decade. So this time, oil traders are better prepared to handle this energy crisis.