"God of Crude Oil Trading" Returns! Andurand bets on Middle East supply shocks, flagship fund soars 31% in the first quarter

Ask AI · Pierre Andurand how to leverage Middle East tensions to turn around his trading career?

“The God of Oil Trading” Pierre Andurand heavily bets on Middle East supply shocks, re-entering long positions in oil, with his flagship fund soaring over 30% in the first quarter, marking a strong comeback.

On April 2nd, according to Bloomberg citing insiders, Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund gained 31.1% in the first quarter. This impressive performance coincided with rising oil prices, with Brent crude up nearly 60% in March. The surge in oil prices was driven by deep disruptions to the global energy supply chain caused by Middle East conflicts, with shipping blocked and some production halted, triggering the largest recorded supply interruption.

As the precise predictor of oil price surges in 2008 and crashes in 2020, the “God of Oil Trading,” Pierre Andurand was once the most steadfast bull in the market. His bullish forecast for 2023 missed the mark, ending a three-year streak of profits. In 2024, he exited oil long trades, waiting for the right moment. He was again frustrated in 2025, recording about a 40% loss. Now, he is heavily betting on Middle East supply shocks, achieving a strong comeback.

Monthly divergence, March’s battle laid the foundation for the season’s gains

According to Bloomberg data, the first quarter of Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund showed significant divergence: a 4% decline in January, a 4.6% rise in February, and a 30.6% surge in March, with March contributing most of the season’s gains. The trend closely aligned with oil price fluctuations. In March, escalating Middle East conflicts and disruptions in Persian Gulf shipping sparked supply concerns, causing oil prices to rise sharply, benefiting the fund’s long positions.

This performance was especially critical. The fund suffered a 40% loss in 2025, which once raised doubts about its strategy. During the initial outbreak of Middle East conflicts, the fund rose 6% in a week, catching many hedge funds off guard amid volatile oil prices. Subsequently, the fund successfully captured the March crude oil rally, delivering strong returns and validating its strategy.

From bullish to exiting: Andurand’s oil trading ups and downs

Pierre Andurand previously worked as an energy trader at Goldman Sachs and Vito Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, before founding hedge fund Andurand Capital Management. He gained fame for accurately predicting the 2008 oil price surge and the epic crash in 2020.

As a well-known bullish figure in the oil market, he predicted in early 2023 that oil prices would reach $140 per barrel by year-end. However, Brent crude never broke $100, and OPEC+ production cuts failed to boost the market effectively. Short positions gained ground, his bullish strategy failed, and his performance suffered, ending his three-year profit streak.

In 2024, ahead of the June OPEC+ meeting, Andurand completely liquidated his oil futures long positions, holding a “cautiously optimistic” outlook. The firm stated in a letter, “Once we have a clearer understanding of supply, we will re-engage in the oil market.”

From failed predictions to exiting positions, from waiting in the wings to striking hard. Amidst the tides, this “hunter” of the oil market has never truly left. When supply shocks strike again, Andurand once more bets on longs. This time, the market is on his side.