I found it interesting to review that episode of the tension between the US and Iran that took place in February. At the time, predictive markets like Polymarket were assessing how to resolve the question of the likelihood of an American attack before the end of March, and the number rose significantly to 69%. I remember Trump had expressed dissatisfaction with the negotiations, mainly regarding uranium enrichment. Iran did not want to give up its legitimate rights, and Iranian armed forces were already threatening to respond destructively.

What caught attention at the time was how the market was trying to price this geopolitical uncertainty. The data showed a 69% chance of action before March 31, while for before the end of February it was much lower, around 19%. This gave a time margin that the market was trying to resolve probabilistically.

Trump later said he preferred to resolve peacefully, that he had a very important decision to make. Meanwhile, the Ford aircraft carrier had already arrived in Israel. It was that typical moment of uncertainty in this kind of situation — no one knew exactly what was going to happen.

It was one of those occasions where you saw predictive markets functioning as a thermometer of geopolitical tension. Even though most concerns about oil were not so evident at the time, it was clear that this type of risk was being priced in. These situations always show how difficult it is to resolve probability in political and military events — many variables are at play.