A Frustrated Youth's Rant

Some people are still saying "can't fight, can't fight," and I really can't take it anymore.

What does "can't fight" mean? Do you have to see missiles flying everywhere before you call it a fight? If the Strait of Hormuz sees oil tankers being blocked every other day, freight costs doubling, oil prices soaring past a hundred, isn't that a fight? Do tanks have to roll into Tehran for it to be considered war? That's naive.

Let me tell you, both sides are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Hardline voices inside Iran are loud. If you're the leader and you've been threatening for a year and suddenly soften, how do you explain that to your people? The U.S. side is the same. Once they evacuate citizens, there's no turning back; otherwise, it looks like the government misjudged the situation. Both sides are on the edge of the ring—who jumps first? They're both afraid that blinking first will make the other side look down on them.

The worst part is, some players actually hope this fire burns hotter. Who benefits from rising oil prices? Oil-producing countries. Who's most risk-averse when geopolitical risks increase? Some major powers. Many people haven't realized that when negotiations break down, for some, it's not a bad thing—it's an opportunity.

My simple judgment: a ceasefire agreement is unlikely in the short term, and the Strait of Hormuz won't be fully blocked, but skirmishes will become more frequent. The market's job isn't to wait for the final outcome but to bounce around within this uncertainty. Those who can seize this volatility can make a lot of money; those who can't, better not to move recklessly. Watching the show is also a strategy. Anyway, I’ve laid it out here—come back in a couple of weeks and see if I was right.