An Ordinary Trader's Anxiety

I couldn't sleep again last night, tossing and turning while scrolling through my phone, and the more I scrolled, the more I couldn't fall asleep.

Honestly, I've been watching the US-Iran situation since last week, but I didn't take it seriously, thinking it was just the usual routine—some tough talk, then sitting down to negotiate. But these past couple of days, something felt off. Iran's tone has noticeably risen several degrees compared to before, and it's not just talk; their military movements are very quick. As for the US, they’ve started evacuating citizens directly, which is a very clear signal—if they really thought negotiations could work, would they bother to evacuate people first?

I have a habit: whenever this kind of geopolitical risk pops up, I tend to check shipping news. Sure enough, the insurance premiums for oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have started to jump. The insurance companies are sharp—they never lie about their pricing. The market, sometimes you watch it all day and can't figure out what's going on, but the freight rates and insurance premiums—these peripheral data—are often the best indicators.

But I also don’t dare to go all-in on any particular direction. I’ve been through too many times, you know? Every time I think something big is about to happen, I wake up after a weekend and find that secret channels have already negotiated, and a big bearish candle hits the K-line. But conversely, every time I think everything’s fine, that’s often when real trouble is about to happen.

So now I keep my positions light, holding some energy-related assets, setting stop-losses, and just waiting. Waiting for what? Waiting for someone to blink first. This game is too big—it's not just the US and Iran, but several major powers behind the scenes are pushing hard. We small investors, to put it nicely, are participating in history; to put it bluntly, we’re just riding the waves. Buckle up, this ride is going to be rough.