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Polymarket: The probability of Waller being confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair skyrocketed from 27% to 85%
CryptoWorld News reports that, according to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of Waller being confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair has surged from 27% to 85%.
This change stems from reports that the U.S. Department of Justice will end its criminal investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell, removing a key Senate obstacle.
Market expectations for Waller to become the next Federal Reserve Chair have significantly increased, reflecting traders’ belief that major political hurdles are about to disappear.
According to Wikipedia’s timeline, Powell’s criminal investigation was initiated earlier this year, involving cost overruns in renovations of two Federal Reserve buildings.
As of April, Powell had not been charged with any crimes, and the Department of Justice officially ended the investigation on April 24, removing a critical condition for Senator Thom Tillis’s support for any successor.
With this obstacle eliminated, traders have increased their probability that the Senate can swiftly confirm Waller before Powell’s term ends on May 15.