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I just noticed something interesting in the behavior of Bitcoin ETF investors during this recent selloff. While BTC fell from the $126K down to around the $60K recently, the outflows from these funds were much smaller than many expected.
Nate Geraci from ETF Institute explained it well: since BTC hit its peak in October, spot ETFs have seen about $6.5 billion in outflows. But here’s the important part—almost nothing compared to the $55 billion that have flowed in since January 2024. Even in the last 3 days, there were inflows of more than $1 billion.
What this tells me is that the investor profile has changed quite a lot. We’re no longer seeing mass panic like in previous cycles. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence notes that only 10% of the capital left during a 50% drop. That’s practically nothing. Institutional investors held their positions steady—which is what we call “diamond hands” in the market.
The difference between Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETF here is notable. While the price of BTC moved brutally, the behavior of these investors was much calmer. It seems that institutions have shifted from pure speculation to seeking strategic asset allocation for the long term.
Right now, BTC is at $78K and continues to recover. What catches my attention is that the bottom looks much more solid than in previous years, precisely because these ETF investors aren’t selling in panic. The market has reached another level of maturity.