I just reviewed something interesting about Bitcoin that is catching the attention of several analysts these days. It turns out that the fractal pattern we saw before the 2024 rally is reappearing, but with a twist: macro conditions are completely different from two years ago.

What is happening now is quite specific. Bitcoin has been in an extremely high-risk zone for 25 consecutive days, the longest streak recorded since tracking began. Historically, when the price moves from high risk to lower risk, it often marks the beginning of a strong bullish expansion. The fractal pattern suggests a move similar to what preceded the 2024 rebound, but here’s the tricky part: the demand and supply dynamics are not aligned as they were before.

Looking at on-chain data, Bitcoin’s interaction with the supply in profit/loss shows a nuanced scenario. Apparent demand over 30 days has fluctuated between positive and negative, with selling pressure decreasing but without sustained buying to replace that outflow. It’s not exactly the clean fractal pattern some expected.

And here comes the macro. Gold ETFs have been outperforming spot Bitcoin ETFs in net flows over the past 90 days, while Bitcoin funds have recorded outflows. The overall PCE is near 2.9% year-over-year, with core around 3%, which keeps liquidity restricted. This is different from 2024, when the environment was much more expansive.

From my perspective, the price could push toward the $70,000–$80,000 zone in the short term, but several experienced observers warn that this could face new selling pressure if macro liquidity does not expand. The fractal pattern is there, but it needs broad liquidity support to turn into a lasting move.

What I am monitoring is the $45,000 level as a key support. If that breaks, the historical supports near $40,000 and below could come into play. Also, it’s important to watch inflation data and any signals that the Federal Reserve is easing conditions. ETF flows will continue to be an indicator of whether risk-off capital is moving back into crypto or preferring traditional assets.

The divergence between what on-chain indicators say and the reality of macro liquidity is what makes this complicated. The fractal pattern exists, but without genuine liquidity backing, any rebound could be superficial and vulnerable to sharp corrections. So for now, the environment remains cautious, although technical signals definitely deserve attention.