This week I’ve been paying attention to the supply activity of long-term holders (LTH) bitcoin, and there’s something interesting from on-chain data. The current BTC price is around $78K, but from a weekly market perspective, the technical structure still shows potential for bearishness even though there are some occasional bounces.

So here’s the story - the activity of LTH supply is increasing significantly, which usually happens before a major distribution phase. That means long-term holders are starting to move, and this could be a signal that they are repositioning. Looking at previous weekly market examples, every time LTH supply rises like this, it’s usually followed by volatility and a decline after the accumulation phase ends.

What’s interesting is that the decline from $95K to $60K didn’t reverse this rising supply trend, meaning selling pressure still exists. The support area at $60-62K now appears more as a liquidity grab zone rather than genuine support. So most likely, the market is still in a redistribution phase, and the bounce we see now might just be a liquidity grab before the downtrend continues.

Based on on-chain evidence, a bearish scenario approaching the end of this period seems more probable. But yes, always watch the technical levels and on-chain flow, because the market can surprise.