【AI Big Data Analysis Report】Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Data Date: April 24, 2026
Current Price: Approximately $40.50 - $41.80 USDT (Gate.io)
Core Viewpoint: The daily V-wave upward structure faces a critical validation point, with the price retracing to $40.17 support. On-chain data shows exchange supply has sharply decreased by 22.86%+ and whales continue accumulating, so the medium-term bullish logic remains intact; but technical momentum is waning + trading volume is shrinking, indicating a short-term tendency toward consolidation.

1. Technical Analysis: End of V-wave correction, awaiting confirmation of direction

· Trend Structure: The daily V-wave rally launched from the April 2 low of $34.44 has reached a new high of $45.76 on April 16. Currently, it is in the correction phase within the V-wave (31-32 segment), with the price retracing near the key support at $40.17.
· Momentum Indicators: The 4-hour momentum quantification model shows two signal lines have synchronized below the zero axis, suggesting the correction period may extend. The daily RSI is in the mid-high range but not in overbought territory, reflecting insufficient buying strength.
· Volume Pattern: Since breaking out, trading volume has continuously shrunk. Volume contraction near resistance levels is usually not a bullish sign; the market is in a hesitant phase.
· Wave Structure: Focus on the gains and losses around $40.17:
· Holding above → Maintain $40.17-$45.76 range for consolidation
· Falling below and unable to make new highs → V-wave likely to end at $45.76

2. News Sentiment: On-chain signals are extremely bullish, macro noise exists

· Strong bullish signals from supply side: Exchange HYPE supply sharply dropped 22.86% within 24 hours, tokens continue flowing out of exchanges into personal wallets, significantly reducing selling pressure.
· Whales continue accumulating: During the same window, whale wallets kept buying, with a high-balance wallet completing 5 buy transactions of $51k-$99k in one day. This indicates large players are collecting chips at the bottom.
· Regulatory uncertainty: Hyperliquid’s regulatory path in the U.S. remains uncertain, with increasing competition between Kalshi and Polymarket perpetual contracts. This is currently a major macro suppression factor.
· Liquidity tightening: Some funds have withdrawn from liquidity pools like Meteora, thinning liquidity which may amplify two-way price volatility.

3. Key Support and Resistance

· Core Support: $40.17 - $40.50 (V-wave structure endpoint + key defense zone on 30/60-minute cycles)
· Ultimate Support: $37.50 - $38.00 (Next technical level after breaking $40.17)
· Recent Resistance: $43.80 - $44.00 (Previous high zone + moving average resistance)
· Breakout Target: $45.76 - $46.50 (High point of this V-wave + Fibonacci extension)

【Quantitative Trading Strategy】Focus on buying low at key support retracements, exit or observe if broken

Based on the judgment of “end of V-wave correction + strong on-chain accumulation,” a defensive low-buy strategy is recommended.

1. Mid-term Strategy: Buy on dips at support (Strongly recommended)

· Entry Range: $40.20 - $40.80 USDT (Use correction retracement to enter at key support)
· Add-on Points: If price drops to $38.50 - $39.00 USDT (Rare dip into ultimate support zone), pyramid-style adding possible.
· Stop Loss: $37.40 USDT (Break below key structural level, bullish thesis invalidated)
· Take Profit Targets:
· T1: $43.80 USDT
· T2: $45.50 USDT (Near previous high, reduce position)
· Position Size: 5%-8% of total capital (Spot preferred, leverage no more than 2x)

2. Right-side Breakout Strategy: Volume breakout chasing longs

· Do not place limit orders; wait for volume to break out of the consolidation zone upward before entering.
· Entry Condition: 4-hour candle close > $44.00 USDT, with significant volume increase.
· Stop Loss: $42.00 USDT (Break below the breakout candle’s bottom)
· Take Profit: $46.50 - $47.00 USDT
· Position Size: 3%-4% of total capital (Trend-following, strict stop loss)

3. Short-term Strategy: Range trading or wait-and-see

· Currently at the end of consolidation, with fierce battle between bulls and bears. Aggressive traders can buy low and sell high within $40.20-$43.80, using 2% position size, with stop loss outside the boundary by 1.5%.
· Conservative traders should wait for confirmation of $40.17 support or a breakout above $44.00 before entering.

4. Risk Warnings

· Support breakdown risk: If the daily close price breaks below $40.00 in the candle body, the V-wave structure likely ends, and bullish strategies should pause, waiting for stabilization signals around $37-$38.
· Market correlation: HYPE’s movement is relatively independent, but if BTC drops below 78,000, altcoins will face pressure, and long positions should be reduced.
· Low liquidity risk: On-chain liquidity tightening may cause sharp price swings with small buy/sell orders; it’s advised to place orders in batches and avoid market orders to prevent slippage. #WCTC交易王PK $HYPE