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Once there is an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, will oil prices spike to 150? Stay calm, there is a key variable here.
The most common story in the market:
"Strait blockade = oil prices soar."
But it overlooks a critical question:
How long can it be blocked?
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transportation daily.
But at the same time, it is also one of the areas with the highest military density.
In other words:
You can create conflict, but it’s hard to control it for a long time.
So the more likely scenario is:
✔ Short-term disruption
✔ Rapid recovery
✔ Market volatility
Oil prices could spike instantly, but if supply resumes, prices will also fall quickly.
What truly affects oil prices is not "whether there is conflict,"
but — how long the conflict lasts. #Gate13周年现场直击