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I just noticed a report from K33 indicating that Bitcoin has entered an extremely oversold zone on the weekly level. The Relative Strength Index has dropped to 26.84, one of the lowest levels in history – only the third lowest reading ever.
What’s really interesting is that the perpetual futures markets are showing very extreme pessimism. The funding rate has turned negative, which has happened only 10 times since 2018. When we look at what has happened historically in similar cases, the numbers look very encouraging – the average return after 30 days was about 13%, and after 90 and 180 days it reached 62% and 101%, respectively.
Bitcoin has experienced six consecutive weeks of decline and five consecutive months of negative closes. But despite geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin seems relatively stable. The price is now around $77.76k. It appears the market has reached a saturation point, and now we are waiting for the next move.