Tuesday on Wall Street was truly hellish. The Dow Jones fell by 403 points, the S&P 500 declined by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.02%. But the turmoil can’t be fully conveyed by numbers alone. During trading, the Dow Jones temporarily plunged nearly 1,200 points—its worst sell-off since February. The market is nervous, and even slight moves are triggering large-scale selling.

As the U.S.-Iran war entered its fourth day and Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rose again by 8%. WTI crude surged to $77.05 per barrel, and Brent crude also reached $83.83. This is an accumulated gain of more than $17 from last Friday’s $66, with the increase rate reaching about 26%. With the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for 20% of the world’s oil supply—effectively closed, market panic is intensifying.

Trump issued a statement in the afternoon, promising that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers. For a time, the market calmed down; oil prices fell from their intraday highs, and the stock market recovered. But the problem is serious. If oil prices keep trading above $80, inflation could become uncontrollable, and expectations for the Fed to cut rates would be completely shattered.

On Tuesday, all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell. The materials sector dropped 4.5%, the industrials sector fell by more than 2%, and healthcare and consumer staples also declined by more than 2%. Tech stocks kept falling, with Nvidia and Tesla both down. However, the only bright spots were Target and Best Buy, whose sales were strong and whose shares rose. The VIX volatility index surged to 25.16, the highest level since last November.

Surprisingly, gold also plunged sharply. Spot gold fell by 3.7%, to around $5,148. Silver crashed 6%, and platinum dropped 10%. The reason was the strengthening U.S. dollar. On Tuesday, the dollar index broke above 100 for the first time since May last year. As investors flocked to the dollar as the world’s ultimate safe asset, traditional safe assets like gold and silver became “liquidity sacrifices.”

But this is the most interesting part. Cryptoassets are showing a completely different kind of move. Bitcoin edged up to about $69,413, with a 24-hour rise of 5.8%. Ethereum also held steady around $2,000. Major coins such as Solana and Cardano are showing stable moves as well. The total crypto market value is steady at $2.41 trillion, and 24-hour trading volume has reached $123 billion. Bitcoin’s market capitalization is $1.36 trillion, with a market share of 56.99%.

This completely overturns conventional thinking. In the past, when geopolitical crises emerged, cryptoassets used to plunge alongside tech stocks, because both were seen as “high-risk assets.” But this time is different. Bitcoin is being revalued as “digital gold.” Traditional gold is affected by the strength or weakness of the dollar, but Bitcoin is a true “cross-border currency” that doesn’t depend on any single fiat currency. The dollar strengthening doesn’t automatically make its value fall.

Bullish signals also appear in on-chain data. Selling by long-term holders—those holding for 365 days or more—is nearly over. In early February, the 30-day rolling net sell volume had reached 243,737 BTC, but by March 1 it had fallen to 31,967 BTC—an 87% decrease. Panic selling is over, and the market is bottoming out. Selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has also eased, dropping from 4,718 BTC on February 8 to 837 BTC on March 1.

Even more interesting is the behavior of large investors. From February 19 to February 20, super whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC added about 14,000 BTC. Starting February 25, smaller whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC began accumulating, increasing their holdings from 4.22 million BTC to 4.23 million BTC. Smart money is buying against the trend.

Tom Lee, a prominent analyst at Fundstrat, is optimistic. “The worst selling is likely over this week, and March will be a rising month,” he said. Lee points out that cryptoassets and tech stocks are in the “final bottoming phase,” which could lead to an “April rally.” Historical data supports this view. After major geopolitical conflicts, the S&P 500 typically recovers within about 2 weeks, and three months later it is up by an average of 1%.

Looking at Bitcoin’s technical analysis, it is currently moving sideways in the $65,000 to $68,000 range. The key support level is $65,000. If it breaks below that level, selling pressure could strengthen, potentially dropping to $64,600 and possibly even $64,000. $63,000 is the absolute bottom; if that breaks, it could target $60,000. The main resistance level is $68,000, which has been tested multiple times, and a breakout could trigger FOMO. $70,000 is a psychological milestone; after a break, it could aim for $74,000 to $75,000.

Technical analyst Michael van de Poppe commented, “Bitcoin must hold $65,000. Once it does, a move above $70,000 is just a matter of time.”

The current market is focused on one pressing question: how long will the war last? Trump warned, “This conflict could last four weeks.” If it truly lasts that long, oil prices could break through $100, inflation could get out of control, and the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates, leading to further substantial declines in the stock market. If it lasts only a few days, oil prices could fall, inflation could ease, and if the stock market recovers, cryptoassets could also rise.

Legendary investor Steve Eisman commented, “I won’t change any trades because of this conflict,” but the market clearly thinks otherwise. The VIX spikes, material stocks plunge, and gold collapses. What the market is screaming is “fear.”

However, the only exception is cryptoassets. Against the backdrop of a sharp stock market sell-off and gold’s collapse, Bitcoin showed remarkable resilience. This is a signal that the crypto market is evolving from “pure risk assets” into “alternative safe assets.” The fear index is at 10, long-term holders have stopped selling, and large holders are quietly accumulating. All past data points to the bottoming process being underway.

Meanwhile, when looking at Solana’s slump, even amid overall market panic, major coins like Solana are showing relatively stable movement. This suggests that the market is adopting more diversified investment strategies.

Could Bitcoin rebound to above $70,000 in March? The answer will likely become clear in the coming days. The current Bitcoin price is $77,470, and Ethereum is trading around $2,310. Market liquidity is sufficient, and it’s recommended to check the latest price charts on platforms such as Gate.io.