I just noticed that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) are now in a quite critical position. According to data from CryptoQuant, they are still about 74% in profit, but that margin continues to shrink as the price moves closer to their cost basis of around $38,900. Every time realized accounts show massive losses, it’s usually a sign that the bear market is in its final phase.

Interestingly, Glassnode just reported that the realized gain/loss ratio has dropped below 1, meaning we’ve entered an excessive realized loss phase. This aligns with historical patterns—each bearish market that dips below the LTH cost basis is usually triggered by around 20% realized losses, after which recovery begins. James Check also observed that weekly volatility has exceeded 150%, a level that typically appears during capitulation. The weekly RSI is also at the highest oversold level in Bitcoin’s history.

On the supply side, about 10 million BTC are currently in loss—ranking as the 4th highest of all time. This means capital destruction has been quite significant for a potential market bottom. But, the small recovery yesterday $66K looked artificial, support is still $60K and the trend remains bearish. It seems we need to wait a few more months before liquidity truly returns to the market.