Market Perspective: Technical Feedback, Not Yet a Trend Reversal

Currently, I still lean towards the market scenario being in a rebound phase (rebound), not a long-term upward reversal (reversal). Below are the main points supporting this view:

1. Bear Market Cycles Usually Last 12–13 Months Observing previous cycles shows that bear markets typically last about 12–13 months before truly bottoming out. If we compare within the cycle timeframe, it’s highly likely that the major bottom has not yet been reached and more accumulation time is needed.
2. Bear Markets Always Come with “Black Swans” In past cycles, the market has often experienced a few “black swan” events significant enough to cause widespread panic. Currently, there is only a risk of a liquidity crisis at Aave, but this event has not yet exploded into a systemic crash. Without a major shock, it’s likely the market has not yet hit its final bottom.
3. Capital Withdrawal Pressure from the 2026 Mega IPOs 2026 is forecasted to feature many extremely large IPO deals: SpaceX (scheduled for June)OpenAI (Q4)Anthropic (Q4) Each deal could raise tens to hundreds of billions of USD. These mega IPOs could siphon liquidity from the entire financial market, including the US stock market and the crypto market. When capital is dispersed, risky assets like cryptocurrencies may face stronger correction pressures.
4. Risks from the US Midterm Elections The US midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. History shows that around election periods, there are often strong fluctuations, even deep corrections, in the US stock market. If stocks decline sharply, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to avoid negative impacts.
5. No Major Absorption Signs in BTC Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $60,000 but shows no signs of a volume spike indicating large capital absorption happening quietly. In the 2022 cycle, when BTC dropped to $15,000–$20,000, the market saw a significant increase in trading volume, reflecting a large-scale blood change and accumulation. At present, similar signals are still not clear.

Medium-Long Term Scenario The market bottom is likely in the second half of 2026. Past cycles typically see a 70%–80% decline from the peak. This cycle might be “lighter,” with an estimated decline of about 60%–70%. Short-Term Scenario In the short term, the market may continue a rebound to fill the CME gap around $79,600–$81,000. However, it’s important to distinguish: This could merely be a technical rebound, not a long-term trend reversal. Investors should be cautious with strong upward moves, avoid confusing “rebound” with “reversal,” and manage risks tightly during this period of many macroeconomic variables as it is now.