Trump criticizes the world as a casino, but "jumping the gun" on transactions still relies on his policy points

Writing: Xiao Yanyan, Jintou Data

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is concerned about the growing trend of betting on geopolitical events and described the world as “becoming a bit like a casino.”

When asked about the arrest of a U.S. special forces soldier suspected of betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, Trump said he was not familiar with the details and would look into it.

ABC News citing sources reported that U.S. federal authorities arrested a special forces soldier involved in the Maduro capture on Thursday, who allegedly profited over $400k by betting on Maduro’s ouster.

Sources said federal investigators believe that this soldier placed bets on the prediction market Polymarket more than three hours before Trump announced the capture of Maduro in January, betting over $33k. This series of bets earned more than $409k in profit, prompting an internal review of the prediction market and a months-long insider trading investigation.

“It’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” Trump said, referring to the late baseball player banned from Major League Baseball for gambling.

When asked whether he was concerned about betting activities related to the Iran conflict, Trump said it is a global issue.

“Well, I think the whole world, unfortunately, has become a bit like a casino,” Trump said, adding that such betting “is happening all over the world, people are doing these kinds of betting activities everywhere.”

“Now, I am not happy about it,” he concluded.

Trump’s Iran policy shift highlights insider trading threats in Washington

In the oil markets, volatility has recently surged to levels never seen since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Global commodities and stock markets have been sharply fluctuating with each twist in the Iran conflict: strikes, suspensions, “threatening to destroy a civilization,” ceasefires; then reaching agreements, failing to reach agreements, and prospects of renewed agreements…

A recurring theme amid recent market turbulence is those precisely timed trades that make traders a fortune. Some of these trades, especially in the oil market, seem to follow a pattern: perfect timing, just before Trump makes a statement or posts on social media.

Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to the CFTC requesting an investigation, mentioning multiple trades on April 7. Around 3:45 p.m. New York time, traders executed over 15 million barrels of Brent crude and WTI futures contracts within two minutes, worth about $1.7 billion. During the same period, U.S. and European stock index futures also saw similar surges.

About three hours later, Trump posted on social media that he would announce a two-week ceasefire. When markets reopened, WTI crude oil prices fell over 15% in early trading, while stocks rose more than 2.5%. Theoretically, if an investor shorted $1 million worth of oil futures during the surge that afternoon, they could have made nearly $170k after Trump announced the ceasefire that evening.

Earlier, on March 23, 16 minutes before Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would delay strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, billions of dollars worth of oil and stock index futures had already changed hands. According to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg, within two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. New York time, contracts representing at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude oil were traded.

During the same period, about 6,000 U.S. stock index futures contracts worth over $2 billion were traded. After Trump’s post at 7:05 a.m., Brent crude fell about 15%, and U.S. stocks rose nearly 4% from intraday lows to highs.

Democratic lawmakers and other critics argue that some recent profitable trades seem “incredibly perfect,” difficult to explain by skill or luck alone. Under increasing political pressure, the CFTC has launched an investigation into signs of insider trading.

In a recent controversy, Rep. Ritchie Torres called on the CFTC on Wednesday to expand its investigation to suspicious trades in oil futures before Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire this week.

He wrote: “This is not an isolated incident; rather, it is part of a broader and deeply concerning pattern.” The CFTC declined to comment on the investigation previously and did not respond to related questions Thursday.

There is no evidence yet that White House staff profited from insider trading. However, officials recently sent an email warning employees not to use confidential information for trading. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle stated in a Thursday release:

“All federal employees are bound by government ethics rules that prohibit using nonpublic information for financial gain. However, it is baseless and irresponsible to suggest, without evidence, that government officials engaged in such activities. The CFTC will continue to fulfill its responsibilities, monitoring fraud, manipulation, and illegal activities daily.”

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which operate major oil futures platforms, declined to comment.

Frankly, concerns about government information being used for insider trading have appeared in previous administrations, including Trump’s first term.

In 2019, after a controversial Vanity Fair article suggested investors profited billions by trading on news before it impacted the market, the CFTC investigated whether government leaks fueled huge futures market gains. The investigation ultimately did not lead to enforcement actions.

Aitan Goelman, former head of the CFTC Enforcement Division and now a partner at Zuckerman Spaeder LLP, said derivatives regulators have broad investigative powers. However, he also noted that punishing those involved in suspicious trades is more complicated.

He said that derivatives rules make this “more complex than in the securities field.”

The CFTC’s main authority to root out insider trading based on government information is relatively new. Due to concerns that futures traders might profit from insider information, lawmakers added a provision called the “Eddie Murphy rule” in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

This regulation made it illegal for commodities market investors to engage in schemes depicted in the 1980s film “Trading Places,” where Murphy and Dan Aykroyd’s characters exploited leaked government crop reports to bet on orange juice futures and make millions.

As the CFTC deepens its investigation and online debates about whether certain trades are driven by insider information intensify, markets beyond oil continue to fluctuate.

Even before the Iran conflict erupted, whispers in Washington questioned whether people were betting using insider information about Trump or his administration’s next moves. Trades made before Trump’s April 2025 “Day of Liberation” tariff suspension announcement, and prediction markets betting on Maduro’s ouster, have fueled speculation.

Betting on world events is rapidly expanding in prediction markets. On Polymarket, the geopolitics category is quickly becoming one of the platform’s most popular. According to data compiled by Dune Analytics, in the week ending April 6, bets on this category reached a record $560 million, up from about $100 million in the first week of this year.

Unlike the crowded oil futures market, prediction market liquidity can be relatively sparse—making it easier to influence the market. This was evident in January: a single trader on Polymarket made nearly $400k betting on Maduro’s arrest, with the largest bets just before Trump publicly announced the military operation.

The Maduro incident also affected other geopolitical bets. At that time, bets on the ouster of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei before summer surged sharply. He was killed within hours of the outbreak of war.

In March, Polymarket announced a “Market Integrity Enhancement” that explicitly bans three types of insider trading: using stolen confidential information, illegally leaking news, and betting by individuals who can influence the outcome. The company also stated that all forms of fraud and market manipulation are prohibited.

The integrity of prediction markets is not limited to conflict betting. On Wednesday, Kalshi announced suspensions and fines for three congressional candidates for engaging in “political insider trading” related to their campaigns. The company did not comment further Thursday. Kalshi lists insider trading bans on its website and said in March it is taking additional measures to prevent such activities.

More bets on political and global events are coming. Along with that, questions about how bettors are able to guess correctly will also increase.