Geopolitical tensions have a direct relationship with crypto market volatility—this is clearly reflected in this week’s data. Macro funding conditions have tightened, and now supply shocks, rather than interest rates, have become the main force driving the market.

Rising tensions between the US and Iran are pushing oil prices higher, bringing real inflation back into focus. If this situation persists over the next few months, it will put significant pressure on the Fed’s monetary policy. At the same time, long-term interest rates are rising rapidly, which is not good news for traditional risk assets.

The labor market picture has also changed. On the surface, new employment figures look strong, but in reality, everything hinges mainly on healthcare and migrant workers. Jobs in the financial and government sectors are declining. According to the Fed’s model, the growth in labor supply has nearly reached zero.

In the crypto market, an unusual paradox is currently visible. Total market capitalization is around $1.55 trillion, and Bitcoin’s share is close to 57%. The price is hovering around $77.5K, but sentiment is still in an “extreme fear” state. Spot ETF funds show a mixed picture as well—some new funds are coming in, while some older ones are exiting.

When you look at on-chain data, DEX trading volume is below normal, and traders are waiting. In the options market, put skew is still elevated, which means institutional players are hedging downside risk. The risk of false breakouts remains as well.

But where is the smart money going? Heavy investment continues in the primary market into RWA and AI infrastructure. Valinor has secured $25 million in funding, and Midas has raised $50 million. Focus is also increasing on stablecoin infrastructure—The Better Money Company received $10 million from a16z. Large amounts of USDC are being issued, showing that major investors are keeping capital in stablecoins while waiting for opportunities.

As for on-chain trends, traffic on prediction markets and meme launchpads is strong. Platforms like OmenX and CADE Market are turning real events into tradable assets. Meme crypto launchpads like PumpCA are also attracting short-term traders, but this is a risky area.

What should you do in this turmoil? First, hedge through derivatives. Build a short position near the strong resistance around $75,000 to lock in spot gains. Second, avoid blind market orders when key data is released. Place orders in advance at support levels such as $65,000. Third, grid trading can deliver additional benefits in an environment like this with frequent swings.

Putting stablecoins into Earn accounts to earn competitive interest is also a smart move. In times of market uncertainty, keeping cash on hand and earning returns from it is the biggest active advantage. Changes are also happening in infrastructure—more attention is being paid to stablecoin clearing and payment systems, reflecting the market’s maturation.

Next week, the US Senate will consider a bill related to regulatory clarity. If it moves forward, it could temporarily break the current fear sentiment.

Finally, a serious warning: the number of fake platforms in the market is increasing. Copycat sites with similar names and UI are deceiving users with promises of false returns. Do not click on airdrop links from unknown sources. Use only official apps and domains. The only rule for staying in this space is to protect your original principal capital.