Yesterday I noticed an interesting signal on the three-hour Bitcoin chart — a classic bearish cross has formed when the 50-day moving average dropped below the 200-day moving average. Such a pattern usually does not bode well for the price.

History of cryptocurrency shows that every time this has happened since 2014 during a bear market, Bitcoin has fallen quite significantly. During the 2022 crash and the 2018 crypto winter, the asset lost about 52%, and in 2014 it was even worse — 57%. Based on this data, analysts expect the price could drop to around $36,000, which corresponds to the Fibonacci extension that previously marked the bear’s bottom.

Interestingly, just a few days ago, Bitcoin nearly reached $74,000 — there was a short squeeze, investments in spot ETFs, and some geopolitical relaxation. But the momentum quickly ran out. Currently, the price is trading around $77,540, which is already below both key moving averages. The relative strength index shows a neutral position, but the overall picture looks bearish. It’s interesting to see how far this could go — whether it will reach $36,000 or find resistance earlier.