Guoxin Futures: Gold and silver fluctuate and weaken, prioritizing risk control for precious metals

The core contradiction in the current market is that geopolitical risks continue to escalate, but financial conditions are tightening simultaneously, with the two offsetting each other, leading to a significant weakening of precious metals’ safe-haven function. On the geopolitical front, explosions have been reported in Tehran, Iran, and air defense systems have been activated. The U.S. military is assembling three aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, and Trump has reiterated the retention of military options. The U.S.-Iran standoff has entered a highly sensitive period. There are reports that Iran’s chief negotiator, Kalibaf, has resigned, increasing uncertainty about the prospects of negotiations. Although Iran denies internal disputes, the situation remains complex. However, traditional safe-haven assets like gold have not benefited from this; instead, they are under pressure and declining. The fundamental reason lies in the macro chain reaction caused by soaring energy prices: Brent crude oil stabilizes above $100 per barrel, WTI crude approaches $97 per barrel, significantly boosting global inflation expectations, strengthening the dollar index, and pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to a high of over a week, markedly increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, market expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates have strengthened, and the tightening of dollar liquidity expectations has further increased selling pressure. Silver, which has both industrial and financial attributes, has experienced a more pronounced decline during this adjustment.

In the short term, geopolitical tensions are intensifying, but precious metals are constrained by the strengthening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, likely continuing a pattern of oscillation and weakness. The main contract for Shanghai Gold references a range of around 1020-1080 yuan per gram, and the main contract for Shanghai Silver references a range of around 18,200-19,500 yuan per kilogram. In terms of operation, it is recommended to adopt a cautious approach, paying attention to the geopolitical situation between the U.S. and Iran and changes in crude oil prices. (Guoxin Futures)