The US-Iran negotiations have fallen into a deadlock where neither side is willing to back down: the United States insists that Iran must first lift its control over the Strait of Hormuz before dialogue can begin, while Iran demands that the US first lift its maritime blockade of Iran. With core positions completely opposed, any substantive progress is impossible. Currently, the US and Iran have reached a "mutual tacit understanding"—neither actively initiates large-scale military actions nor abandons threats and blockades against each other. The strategic deadlock is gradually becoming the norm that cannot be avoided. The Strait of Hormuz has repeatedly shown a pattern of "opening and closing"—about 10 million barrels per day, roughly 10% of global oil supply, remain locked inside the strait. The world's energy and supply chain "arteries" continue to face severe challenges.

1. Judging the Possibility of Ceasefire Breakdown and Strait Blockade

The likelihood of a ceasefire breakdown is significantly increasing. Although the US has extended the ceasefire deadline, it has not lifted its maritime blockade of Iran, and the White House spokesperson explicitly stated that "Trump is satisfied with the blockade." Meanwhile, Iran's parliamentary speaker has firmly stated that "in blatant violation of the ceasefire, it is impossible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz." With the "Bush" carrier strike group arriving in the Middle East, supported by the "Lincoln" and "Ford" carriers, US naval forces in the Middle East are further strengthened; Iran continues to lay mines in the strait, and the Revolutionary Guard's swarm of attack boats is on high alert. Since March, the daily transit of oil tankers through the strait has dropped from 24 ships before the conflict to less than 3 ships, entering a state of minimal navigation. Although both sides still maintain low-efficiency third-party information exchanges, the political and military leverage stacking suggests that a complete blockade of the strait is only a matter of time. Once the bottom line of friction is breached or domestic pressure triggers a critical point, the ceasefire could collapse instantly.

2. Rising Oil Prices and Global Impact from Escalating Conflict

International oil prices are facing enormous upward risks. Since the conflict erupted, Brent futures have surged from around $70 per barrel in late February to breaking through $120, and again around the 22nd, re-approaching $100 per barrel. The International Energy Agency estimates daily oil supply losses of about 10.1 million barrels. Goldman Sachs believes that if the strait remains blocked longer or Middle Eastern supply losses are more persistent, there is significant upside risk for oil prices. Fitch provides key scenario analyses: if the conflict eases quickly, the average annual price could stay around $70 per barrel; if the strait remains blocked for about three months, the annual average could rise to around $100; in an extreme scenario of over six months of blockade, prices could climb to $130–170 per barrel, with the annual average approaching $120. Regardless of how it evolves, global inflation will be continuously driven higher, economic recovery will be under pressure, and high oil prices—starting from the entire transmission chain—will ultimately impact every end consumer.

3. Conclusion

The risks of ceasefire breakdown and strait blockade are accumulating significantly. The situation is essentially a deadlock of "neither fighting nor making peace," but this equilibrium is extremely fragile. If US midterm election pressures and soaring inflation force Trump to seek quick victory, or if hardliners within Iran take the opportunity to confront, clashes will become unavoidable. If the conflict escalates from confrontation to full-scale military engagement, international oil prices could surge to $150 or higher, and global economic growth will face serious stagflation threats. #美伊谈判陷入僵局