Although the US–Iran ceasefire has been nominally extended, the second round of negotiations has been indefinitely shelved, and another stalemate in the Persian Gulf is now unfolding into the core of today’s Middle East geopolitics. Behind it lies a fierce and bitter contest of political will.

The direct reason negotiations have broken down is a “dead cycle” in which each side sets preconditions for the other. The United States insists that Iran must first abandon its nuclear program, hand over enriched uranium, and fully open the Strait of Hormuz; while Iran demands that the United States must first lift the blockade, cancel sanctions, and pay war reparations. With their core interests completely opposed, there is no way to make substantive progress.

More deeply, both the US and Iran are enjoying the current state of “neither war nor peace” in nearly equal measure, turning the strategic stalemate into a new normal. The US believes that continued military blockades are applying maximum pressure on Iran, while Iran views control of the strait as a valuable bargaining chip won on the battlefield. Both sides are waiting for the other to blink first in this fragile balance, and this “coward’s game” has pushed the negotiation process into a disastrous standstill.

However, the global cost is painful. Each day, nearly ten million barrels of oil supply are locked inside the strait; international oil prices continue to surge, crossing the $100 per barrel mark. When the game of “neither war nor peace” drags on for a long time, it goes beyond diplomatic and military power struggles and evolves into a world-spanning, long-duration economic war that destroys global economic growth.
#美伊谈判陷入僵局