Does Trump want to investigate insider trading in prediction markets? His son is the biggest “insider player”

On April 23, Trump gave an interview and publicly stated:

- He does not support gambling

- He wants to personally investigate **insider bets by federal officials in prediction markets**

- He wants to look into those who profit by using “insider information” on Polymarket and Kalshi

On the same day, the Department of Justice just arrested a U.S. military special forces soldier—America’s first criminal case of insider trading in prediction markets:

A sergeant, who knew in advance that Maduro would be taken into custody, bet $33.3 thousand on Polymarket that “Maduro will be ousted,” netting $409 thousand.

Sounds pretty righteous, right? Investigate the insider dealings, catch the bad guys, and uphold fairness.

But keep reading.

Just as Trump opened his mouth to call for a “thorough crackdown,” the media dug up:

His eldest son has long been deeply tied to these two major prediction markets—

- Kalshi’s paid strategic advisor

- a member of Polymarket’s board of directors

And what is the most profitable category in prediction markets?

The political uncertainty created by Trump himself.

U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Maduro actions, crude oil futures fluctuations... which one isn’t closely tied to the policy timing of Trump’s administration?

The president’s policy decisions determine contract wins and losses.

The president’s son sits on the profit chain of both platforms.

The Trump family is also building its own prediction market—Truth Predict—preparing to step in personally.

And then the president himself said: “I’m going to investigate insider trading.”

“You say you want to investigate the hustlers in the casino, but your family is the one running the casino.”

“The core of prediction markets is information aggregation, but Trump has shown one thing—the biggest information advantage is ‘My dad is the president.’”

What is the core value of prediction markets?

Information aggregation + price discovery.

At its essence, it’s a tool for “collective intelligence.”

Then why is it so hard to define the boundaries of insider trading?

Because between “insiders” and “information advantage,” there’s inherently a gray zone.

If you see the news earlier than others, does that count as insider trading? No.

If you know the policy outcome earlier than others, does that count as insider trading? Yes.

So what if you manage to create the policy outcome earlier than others?

Trump said, “The whole world is like a casino.”

That’s right.

But the most terrifying part is—

Some people act as dealers in the casino, some act as players, and his family directly bought shares in the casino. #加密市场行情震荡 $POL