#美伊谈判陷入僵局

The current Middle East situation is in a high-risk stalemate: a ceasefire is on the verge of breaking but has not completely collapsed, the Strait of Hormuz is partially controlled, and a full blockade has about a 30% probability. In the short term, it will mainly involve "frictional blockade + intermittent navigation," with oil prices remaining high and volatile. The following analysis is from three levels:

1. Will the ceasefire break? Likely "de facto dead, with limited duration"
The US-Iran temporary ceasefire has been extended twice, but core disagreements remain unresolved: Iran demands the US fully lift the maritime blockade, cancel sanctions, and cease all hostilities; the US insists on maintaining port blockades, restricting Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and prioritizing Israeli security. Iran has refused to participate in the Islamabad talks on April 22, claiming the US is "insincere and using talks to mask aggression."

Risk of rupture (60%): Both sides’ words and actions contradict each other; the US has deployed the "Bush" aircraft carrier, strengthened Persian Gulf deployments, and initiated civilian evacuations; Iran is accelerating military buildup, revealing missile and drone counterattack plans, significantly lowering the conflict threshold.
Reasons for continuation (40%): The US faces inflation and domestic political pressure, with oil prices soaring and impacting the economy; Iran relies on oil exports for 65% of its revenue, and full-scale conflict would heavily damage itself; international mediations (Pakistan, China, etc.) continue to exert influence, providing buffers.

Conclusion: The ceasefire may be extended again in form but essentially remain in limbo, with frequent accidental clashes becoming normalized. The key observation window is within 5–7 days.

2. Will the Strait of Hormuz be blocked? Partial blockade is a fact, a full blockade is an "extreme bargaining chip"
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 25%–30% of global maritime oil shipments and 20% of LNG transport, known as the "world’s oil valve." Since April 18, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has resumed strict control over the strait, firing on passing oil tankers and intercepting ships, causing a 95% drop in navigation volume—effectively entering a "partial blockade" state.

Full blockade (30% probability): Only triggered if the US directly attacks Iran’s homeland/nuclear facilities or Israel invades on a large scale; Iran’s contingency plans include laying mines in the strait, attacking US aircraft carriers, and blocking the Mande Strait, cutting off global energy supplies.
Partial blockade/intermittent navigation (60% probability): Iran selectively detains oil tankers, establishes no-go zones, and harasses ships frequently, forcing commercial vessels to reroute or pay "security fees"; US military escorts ships but avoids direct conflict, forming a "low-intensity maritime standoff."
Return to normal (10% probability): Requires the US to lift the blockade, Iran to release detained ships, and restart substantive negotiations—difficult to achieve in the short term.

Conclusion: The strait is unlikely to return to normal in the short term, mainly characterized by partial blockade and frictional conflicts; a full blockade is a last resort with extremely high costs, and Iran is cautious in its use.

3. Impact on oil prices and the global market: high volatility, high premiums, strong transmission
Currently, Brent crude has risen above $105 per barrel, WTI approaches $96, with geopolitical risk premiums continuing to increase.

If the ceasefire breaks down and conflict escalates: oil prices could reach $115–125 per barrel, with an extreme scenario (full blockade) impacting $170, sharply increasing global inflation pressures and slowing economic growth.
If stalemate persists and partial blockade continues: oil prices fluctuate between $95–108 per barrel, shipping insurance and transportation costs soar, and energy-dependent industries face pressure.
If diplomatic breakthroughs and de-escalation occur: oil prices fall back to $90–95 per barrel, risk premiums shrink, and market sentiment recovers.

Final judgment:
1. Ceasefire: 60% probability of de facto rupture, 40% of maintaining the appearance; conflict normalizes, no full-scale war in the short term.
2. Strait: partial blockade is a fact, full blockade probability 30%, friction and intermittent navigation will persist long-term.
3. Market: oil prices remain high and volatile, risks upward, with the global economy facing "stagflation" concerns; high alert for geopolitical black swans.