Bitunix Analyst: Rising Expectations for Yen Intervention Amid Policy Caution, BTC Returns to Range Dominated by Liquidity After Squeeze

On April 24, market focus is on Japan’s exchange rate and policy expectations. As the yen approaches the 160 mark, Japan’s Finance Minister signals a readiness to intervene at any time. Meanwhile, institutional views suggest that the Bank of Japan is more inclined to maintain interest rates in the short term, with the key factor being whether the rising energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict will further translate into core inflation. Until the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil supply becomes clearer, policy will primarily adopt a wait-and-see approach, indicating that the liquidity environment remains uncertain. The cryptocurrency market continues to cool down. Following a previous ceasefire signal that brought BTC close to $80,000 and triggered about $339 million in short liquidations, the intensity of liquidations has significantly decreased. Today, BTC failed to maintain momentum, with prices returning to a range-bound fluctuation, indicating that upward movement was mainly driven by liquidations rather than new capital inflows. From a structural perspective, the upper range of $79,000 to $80,000 remains a concentration zone for short-term liquidity and pressure, while the lower range of $73,000 to $75,000 continues to provide support. Current price behavior is characterized by repeated penetrations within the range, with the market returning to a ‘liquidity-dominated’ state, where funds tend to react to macro variables in the short term rather than establishing directional positions.