The United States releases major data, U.S. stock index futures decline across the board, and the dollar surges! The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has changed.

Ask AI · How does the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data affect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions?

The latest US employment data has been released. On the evening of April 3, according to data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. non-farm employment increased by 178k in March, compared to an estimate of 65k, with the previous figure revised to a decrease of 92k, marking the largest increase since the end of 2024. The March unemployment rate slightly declined to 4.3%, with market expectations remaining steady at 4.4% from the previous month. This result exceeded all economists’ forecasts.

According to Xinhua Finance analysis, in the context of no obvious slowdown in the labor market, the Federal Reserve can focus on lowering inflation, which likely means interest rates will stay unchanged for a longer period. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the market’s bets on rate cuts in 2026 decreased. The US dollar index surged straight up, briefly soaring to 100.16. The US Treasury market also collectively plummeted, with the yield on the two-year US Treasury note, which is sensitive to interest rates, rising to 3.88%.

US stock index futures all declined, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.29%, Dow Jones futures down 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.37%.

According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is currently 0.5%, with a 99.5% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut by June is 2.0%, with a 97.5% chance of no change, and a 0.5% chance of a total 25 basis point rate hike.

On Friday, at the close in New York, the ICE US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1%, surging to 100.160 immediately after the non-farm payroll data was released, hitting a daily high, then falling back below 100.

The offshore RMB against the US dollar is quoted at 6.8859, down 42 points from Thursday’s New York close, with overall trading within the range of 6.8904-6.8787 for the day. This week, offshore RMB has risen approximately 330 points, a 0.48% increase, continuing its upward trend on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Due to the holiday closure on Friday, the crude oil market is closed. On Thursday, oil prices maintained a very high level, with WTI crude surpassing $110, and on April 2, soaring over 13% at one point, while Brent crude was at a high of $109.34 per barrel.

Gold prices paused their four-day rally on Thursday, with spot gold down 1.71%, at $4,676.86 per ounce, and spot silver at $72.95 per ounce; COMEX gold futures fell 2.29%, remaining above $4,700. According to Wind, spot gold has already retraced over 13% from this year’s high of $5,598 per ounce.

Do you think the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates this year? Share your thoughts in the comments.

(Note: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)