#美伊谈判陷入僵局 Ceasefire Breaks Down! The Risk of Full-Scale War Between the U.S. and Iran Soars—Will Oil and Gold Prices Surge?

On April 24, 2026, Beijing time, the Middle East situation reached its most dangerous turning point in nearly half a year. The temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, originally set to expire on April 22, has completely become a case of “in name only.” The Strait of Hormuz has fallen into a deadlock of a “dual blockade” between the U.S. and Iran; both sides keep escalating military actions. The risk of a full-scale war has surged dramatically. Once this “energy artery”—carrying 20% of global oil shipments—is completely cut off, global energy markets will face intense turbulence. Oil and gold prices may begin a new round of sharp spikes, directly affecting every ordinary person’s money and spending.

1. The ceasefire completely collapses! The U.S. and Iran move from the negotiating table to military confrontation

From the beginning, this two-week temporary ceasefire was filled with suspicion and maneuvering. Now, its complete breakdown has long been foreshadowed.

On April 21, Iran’s government officially announced it would refuse to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks to be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 22. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency clearly stated: The United States is sending signals of negotiation while simultaneously stepping up maritime blockades and imposing military sanctions—showing no sincerity for talks. Participating in negotiations is nothing but a waste of time.

At nearly the same time, U.S. President Trump announced on social media that the ceasefire period would be extended. It looks like a concession, but in reality hides deadly intent. He emphasized that the extension was at Pakistan’s request. However, U.S. forces would continue to maintain a maritime blockade against Iran, keep comprehensive readiness for war, and threaten to continue bombing Iran once the deadline passes. The White House promptly canceled Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan for talks, further exposing the U.S. side’s true goal of “pressuring Iran into concessions by using the ceasefire as leverage.”

The “peace illusion” of the ceasefire extension lasted only one day. On April 23, the situation completely got out of control. Trump spoke publicly and claimed that the U.S. military has fully taken control of the Strait of Hormuz. He ordered that without U.S. Navy approval, no ships may enter or leave the strait, and that the U.S. military could directly sink Iranian vessels laying mines in the strait.

Iran immediately responded with its most hardline stance. The military finalized an all-around countermeasure plan: if Iran’s domestic power plants or oil and gas facilities are targeted, it will carry out an equivalent retaliation against similar targets in the U.S. and its allies. Even further, it could cause the other side’s crude oil production to be reduced by 25 million barrels per day. This state could last for up to a full year. On the evening of the 23rd, explosions suddenly occurred in Tehran, Iran’s capital. The local air defense system was activated to intercept targets on an emergency basis, and the situation instantly tightened to a breaking point.

2. The Strait of Hormuz: the “key point” of global energy, and the core of U.S.-Iran games

Behind the U.S. and Iran’s escalating tensions, there is only one core focus—the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is the “throat” of the global energy supply chain, and also the lifeline that determines the direction of oil prices.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. At its narrowest point, it is only 33 kilometers wide. The northern shore is Iran’s; the southern shore is Oman’s. It is the only sea route for crude oil exports from oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf coast. According to data, the strait transports about 18.5 to 20 million barrels of oil per day on average, accounting for 31%-34% of global seaborne oil trade—equivalent to 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. Put simply, out of every 5 barrels of oil globally, 1 barrel has to pass through here.

In addition to oil, the area also handles 19.3% of global LNG trade and 27%-30% of LPG trade. Nearly all of Qatar’s LNG exports need to go through this route. For China, 40%-45% of imported crude oil must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For Japan and South Korea, the figure is even as high as 95%.

Now, this “energy artery” has completely turned into a battlefield for U.S.-Iran brinkmanship. The U.S. claims to have “full control” of the strait and bans Iranian ships from passage. Iran, in turn, directly blocks access to the strait. In Tehran, it publicly showcases ballistic missiles and claims it is fully prepared for the conflict to reignite. With both sides forming a “dual blockade” deadlock at the strait, passage for vessels has been obstructed, and the “safety valve” of global energy supply has been completely turned open.

3. War risk is surging! Three signals indicate the situation is spinning fully out of control

The current U.S.-Iran situation has entered a “powder keg” state. Three dangerous signals appear one after another, indicating that the risk of a full-scale war is rising rapidly.

1. Military deployments intensify, the war machine fully kicks in

The U.S. keeps increasing troop levels in the Middle East. A report on April 15 shows that within the coming days, the U.S. will send an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Currently, the “Bush” aircraft carrier strike group is heading toward the Arabian Sea, and the U.S. Navy’s forces in the Middle East have entered a “full combat readiness” posture. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth even said directly: So far, the blockade has used less than 10% of the U.S. Navy’s forces. If Iran makes an “incorrect choice,” the U.S. is ready at any time to restart military operations.

Iran is also showing no weakness. The Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s armed forces, Hatami, replied firmly: “The U.S. and Israel’s wish for Iran to submit will forever fall flat!” Iran has not only deployed large numbers of missiles and fast boats along the strait, but also designated new blockade areas and is ready to launch counterattacks against U.S. naval vessels at any time.

2. Ship-attack fighting escalates, and the conflict shifts from “confrontation” to “live combat”

On April 19, the U.S. Navy’s Spruance-class guided missile destroyer used its main gun to attack Iran’s 80,000-ton cargo vessel TOUSKA, completely destroying its propulsion system. Afterwards, the U.S. Marines rappelled and took control of the vessel. The U.S. side said the ship attempted to break through the blockade, while Iran classified it as “pirate raids” and vowed retaliation.

This is the first time in the U.S.-Iran conflict that civilian vessels have been directly attacked, marking the formal start of “ship-attack warfare.” After that, there have been multiple clashes at the Strait of Hormuz between both sides. Iran has seized multiple foreign oil tankers alleged to have violated regulations, while the U.S. has repeatedly intercepted Iranian vessels—so the conflict keeps escalating.

3. Negotiations completely collapse, with no room for easing

Iran refuses to negotiate, and the U.S. insists on the blockade. The core differences between the two sides cannot be reconciled at all: the U.S. demands that Iran fully open the strait and hand over highly enriched uranium; Iran demands that the U.S. fully lift restrictions on overseas assets and compensate for losses from war. The gap between their bottom lines is too large, leaving no possibility of compromise. Military confrontation has become the only option.

4. Will oil and gold prices rise sharply? How ordinary people should respond to the impact

As the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates and the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz intensifies, the most direct impact is that global energy and financial markets will experience intense turbulence. Oil and gold prices may enter a new round of sharp surges, directly affecting ordinary people’s cost of living and asset allocation.

1. Oil prices: breaking above $100, and domestic gasoline prices may see a significant increase

As of the close on April 23, New York light sweet crude oil futures closed at $95.85 per barrel, up 3.11%. London Brent crude oil futures closed at $105.07 per barrel, up 3.1%, and hit a high of $107.07 per barrel during the day.

If the U.S. and Iran go into full-scale war and the Strait of Hormuz is completely sealed, global crude oil supply would be reduced by nearly 20 million barrels per day. With severe imbalance between supply and demand, oil prices could surge to $120-$150 per barrel in the short term. Domestic refined oil prices are linked to international oil prices. At that time, the domestic price of gasoline 92 may rise above 9 yuan per liter. For car owners, fueling costs would increase significantly. Costs for industries such as logistics, transportation, and chemicals would rise, and those increases would ultimately be passed through to prices—leading to higher prices for everyday consumer goods.

2. Gold prices: risk-aversion sentiment heats up, with potential to challenge $5,000 per ounce

As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold often sees gains when geopolitical conflicts escalate and global economic uncertainty increases.

The market is currently in a “panic mode.” Investors worry that a U.S.-Iran war could trigger a global economic crisis, and large amounts of capital flow into the gold market as a safe haven. On April 23, spot gold prices fell slightly. However, in the long run, if the conflict continues to escalate—if inflationary pressure increases and expectations of Fed rate cuts heat up—gold prices may break through $5,000 per ounce.

It should be noted that a short-term surge in oil prices could raise inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high, which would suppress gold’s short-term upside. But in the long run, geopolitical conflict and economic uncertainty will support gold’s continued rise.

3. How should ordinary people respond?

Make reasonable allocations to gold (physical gold, gold funds) to hedge geopolitical risks. Avoid blindly investing in high-risk assets and maintain cash flow liquidity. Monitor developments in the situation and adjust consumption and investment strategies in a timely manner.

5. Conclusion: the Middle East is a powder keg—there are no winners

As the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, at its core it is a contest of geopolitical interests with no true winners. A full-scale war would not only cause casualties on both sides and economic collapse, but also trigger a global energy crisis, high inflation, and an economic downturn. Every country and every individual will be affected.

The current situation is still unfolding. Will the U.S. and Iran go into full-scale war? How high will oil and gold prices go? The next developments remain uncertain. But what can be confirmed is that every outbreak of instability in the Middle East is closely tied to our daily lives.

Stay focused on subsequent developments and make preparations to respond—that is the key for ordinary people to protect their interests amid this geopolitical storm.