I just read a pretty interesting analysis about why the price of XRP shouldn't be evaluated as a traditional speculative cryptocurrency. It turns out there is a growing debate in the community about this.

The main point is that XRP is currently trading around $1.43, but several analysts argue that the market still doesn't truly understand what it was designed for. Most investors see it as just another speculative asset, when in reality its fundamental purpose is tied to payments and cross-border settlement at the institutional level.

Rob Cunningham, who hosts the KUWL Show, has been challenging the way we think about XRP's valuation. His argument is quite solid: if it stops being compared to Bitcoin and starts being treated as financial infrastructure, the pricing logic would change completely. When institutions hold XRP on their balance sheets as collateral to facilitate global payments, not as a speculative asset, then the price would have a different basis.

The model he presented links three key elements: transaction volume, institutional liquidity needs, and XRP price. Here's the logic: if XRP-related systems captured 15% of the annual Swift flow (approximately $150 trillion), we would be talking about around $22.5 trillion in potential volume. Of that, if 25% is actually liquidated using XRP, we reach about $5.6 trillion in annual settlement.

Now, for that to work frictionlessly, institutions would need to hold a significant amount of XRP circulating 6 to 12 times a year. That creates a basic liquidity need of around $140 billion. But considering risk margins (2 to 5 times), the total liquidity required would rise between $280 billion and $700 billion.

What's interesting is that this XRP wouldn't be traded speculatively but held in institutional balances. This would ensure stable corridors, low volatility, and immediate settlement. According to the model, this could translate into different price scenarios for XRP. In a basic settlement case, the price would range between $2.50 and $7.50. If XRP becomes a systemic liquidity asset globally, the range expands to $10 up to $200. In the most ambitious scenario, where XRP functions as a reserve asset, prices could reach $50 as high as $100 or more.

David Schwartz, Ripple's CTO, has mentioned for years that XRP needs a higher price to operate efficiently in cross-border settlements. This isn't a price prediction but a design requirement: a higher price allows moving large values with fewer tokens, reducing friction.

What I find relevant is that this narrative about XRP's price isn't really a question of conventional cryptocurrencies. It's more a matter of corporate balances and global liquidity. Once institutions stop thinking of XRP as speculation and start using it as infrastructure, everything changes. That is the tipping point many analysts are pointing to.