Recently, I've been looking at LST and re-staking again. To put it simply, the returns don't fall from the sky: some come from the basic staking interest, but a lot actually come from "people willing to pay for safety/liquidity/point narrative," as well as leverage and risk premiums after re-packaging. The problem is that risks are also being bundled: smart contracts, redemption liquidity, underlying penalties, and after layering multiple times, you don't even know what you're actually staking... Anyway, I now prefer to earn a little less rather than wake up to find an on-chain run.

Outside, people are still interpreting ETF capital flows, US stock risk appetite, and crypto price swings together. Listening to it, it feels a bit like "hermeneutics," which can influence emotions but doesn't necessarily explain why your positions suddenly blow up.

What I fear most isn't actually missing out on opportunities, but the signals I clearly understand before a risk arrives, yet still stubbornly hold on to.